The Power of Preconceptions

I've been pondering this issue for many years, in the context of my role as an automotive analyst. When you read a review of a car, odds are the writer's opinions will be hard and fast, giving you the impression that the car in question offered a unique driving experience in every way, with some traits good, others bad.

As a semi-experienced road tester with some good track time under my belt and access to some of the best roads in the country when I head out to Santa Barbara where my company is located, I must declare that my experience has been quite different.

For the most part, new cars drive pretty nicely, with much more parity than Car and Driver would have you believe. I know that I'm still working on tuning my own senses to be able to detect the minute differences between machines, but the fact is that most of the characteristics under discussion in car reviews are minimally felt differences that are amplified by the writer for the sake of drama and usefulness.

After all, who's really going to pay attention to a writer who declares that his experiences in the Nissan 370Z and the Hyundai Genesis Coupe were too close to call. Readers demand conclusions, which is why C/D ranks their road test subjects in every face-off--and possibly why Car and Driver is the most popular enthusiast rag.

But aside from the most obvious cues, like exhaust note (in which the Genesis absolutely shone) or parking lot steering effort (the Genesis was a bit too heavy here), the ride and handling can be tough to compare accurately, even when driven back-to-back. And this is where I feel like preconceptions play a big role.

Going into this particular duel, the Nissan would naturally have a big advantage, purely because of its badge. The driver believes that the Nissan is a better-handling car, and it may well be, but the only way he or she will give the Hyundai the advantage is if the Nissan has noticeable deficiencies, which it really doesn't.

Which brings me to what set off this rant in the first place. I'm catching up on the Autoblog podcasts, which by the way, are fantastic. If you want to learn about cars, and how auto journalists think, these hour-and-change rant sessions are a gold mine, and a great source for honest opinion. But I was just listening to blogger Dan Roth talk about the Audi Q5 he has in his garage right now, and the first phrase he used to describe it is, "It's a fancy Tiguan." That was quickly pointed out to be untrue, and you could just hear the wheels turning in his head as his conceptions of the vehicle were adjusted.

After learning that the Q5 is actually based on the A4/A5 platform, it felt like his impression of it got more favorable. Not to pick on Dan, though, since I know that I do the same kinds of things. When discussing cars with my colleagues after a test drive, we'll often have wildly different impressions, especially since we're struggling to pick out the traits that stood out in any way, and exaggerating them to show that we really noticed something. When this happens, the viewpoint that is most supported by preconceptions of a brand is the one that always seems to carry the most weight.

Perhaps this is just me wrestling with my frustration at the trouble I have with evaluating cars. But I really feel that, especially in every-day, public-road driving, most people wouldn't even be able to tell the difference between a front-drive and rear-drive car, let alone which car has the best handling balance.

And when it comes down to it, having fun in a car is usually more a function of the road than the actual car. Even with wildly different abilities, I had about as much fun in a Nissan Altima as I did in a 1-series BMW, simply because the road was a blast.

No doubt any auto journalist who reads this will take complete umbrage with it. But part of the point is that cars have just gotten so good that it's tough to find a sub-par driving experience anymore. Sure, few machines can approach the experience of a Lotus Elise on a twisty mountain road. But daily drivers are all tuned within such a narrow spectrum that a lot of the time, they all seem to blend together.

Deutschland, Part 1

I recently returned from a grand automotive trip to the Fatherland. My plan involved a whirlwind tour of Germany, hitting all of the major car-related sights, like car factories and the spectacular museums that each of the brands has attached to their headquarters.

I flew into and out of Munich, home of Bayerische Motoren Werke. My first full day was spent touring the city, since throughout Germany many of the museums and tourist attractions are closed on Mondays. But I got to do a great bike tour with Mike's Bike Tours, meeting a lot of great people and seeing some very cool stuff. Here's some of the highlights:


These are some good examples of the architecture that covered most of the cities of Germany. As anyone who's been to Europe knows, there are many more centuries of architectural history to be discovered there than anywhere in North America.

That night some of the crew from the tour went to the Hofbräuhaus to, what else, drink some beer. There was a group of 5 from Philly, plus me and Allison, a fellow Jew from Chi-town. We'd actually discovered our shared tribe when, at a certain point in the trip there was a memorial to a WWII resistance movement with stones set on top from people who'd visited, a very Jewish custom, usually used to pay respects at Jewish cemeteries. We were the only two to place stones atop it.

We hadn't talked all that much during the tour, but afterwards, sitting in the Hofbräuhaus, and especially when the Philly contingent had left, we seemed to really hit it off, getting into some fascinating conversations, including about our common anxiety about traveling alone. Planning and doing this trip had been fraught with anxiety for me, and it was great to meet someone who shared some of those feelings, and not feel lame about it. It really seemed to lift some of the weight for me. Thanks, Allison.

But it leads to another interesting part of the trip. I'd used the Rosetta Stone program to learn some German before the trip, but until this point, I hadn't used it at all, since I knew the front desk people at my Munich hostel spoke flawless English, and quite honestly, I chickened out. But I knew I'd be late to my hostel in Ingolstadt, since I didn't want to leave my wonderful conversation with Allison. My trip was the budget kind, so I stayed mostly in hostels, usually in big, cheap dorm rooms. I called the hostel, and to my surprise no one in the "Jugendherberge", the youth hostel, in Ingolstadt, spoke English. When you think about it, why would they? Any foreigners traveling to Ingolstadt would generally be picking up their new car at the Audi Forum...not exactly the kind of person looking to save money with a youth hostel.

So I had to struggle through my first real conversation in German, and by golly I got through it. It actually gave me the first hint of confidence I needed, if not to engage random strangers in banter, to at least try to use Germany when I needed to interact with locals.

That night, I took a train to Ingolstadt, Audi central.

The old town of Ingolstadt, situated on the Danube River, is a beautiful slice of well-preserved germania. It was a pleasant surprise, since all I was expecting out of this town, about halfway between Munich and Nuremberg, was a city built around a car factory. Its charm was undeniable, though, perhaps best represented by the main gate of the city, seen here.

Since I'd already toured the Audi museum on a business trip in November, I only did the factory tour. Unfortunately none of the manufacturers allow cameras into their factories, for obvious reasons, but I can give you a few juicy tidbits from each.

In Ingolstadt Audi manufactures their lower level products, like the A3, A4 and A5, as well as all their engines. We got a tour of the body stamping area and the main assembly line. It was here that I was introduced to the Audi concept of assembly line work groups. It’s a group of around 5 or 6 people with one quality specialist and one “group speaker”, who gets to boss people around. They stay at one area of the line, but they get to rotate between jobs, so it breaks up the monotony. Apparently each worker is in charge of learning additional jobs at their own pace to be able to take advantage of this. This group set-up seemed to inject a more social atmosphere than at the American plants I’ve seen, but my experience there is definitely limited.

I was also fortunate enough to be treated to lunch by a friend from Audi at the restaurant at the Audi Forum. The Forum is where Audi customers from around the world come to pick up their Audi and be treated to a world-class experience. All the manufacturers in Germany have a program like this, though Volkswagen doesn't extend this privilege to Americans. Here's a customer picking up their new Q5.

After Ingolstadt, I was off to Nuremburg for some good ol' fashioned non-auto-related tourism. But I'm a bit tired of writing now, so I'll save that for part 2.

Another Wonderful Juxtaposition

I do so love it when two news stories so ironically related appear near one another on the same day. The first example I showed was the Sirius/XM merger and the DaimlerChrysler split.

Today I saw two posts on Autoblog, both addressing the fate of the luxury hybrid segment. The second post discussed the future of the Cadillac Converj concept, saying that GM had given it a new lease on life. The Converj would be a luxury car based on the plug-in hybrid underpinnings of the Chevy Volt. The post closed with the sentence, "While nothing has been officially decided – some inside GM think the Volt should have been a Caddy all along while others don't think that luxury car buyers care about being green – don't count the Converj out yet."

What I found interesting was the absence of mention of the post right before it, which states that, "the new Lexus HS 250h is in such high demand in Japan that Toyota may not be able to provide an adequate supply of the luxury hybrid model here in the States."

Perhaps a little self-awareness on Autoblog's part wouldn't hurt.

Clunkers will end with a clunk

The Cash for Clunkers program has been so successful, it ran out of cash in less than a month. We've all heard about this, and the Congress' scramble to re-fund the program. The prospect of the sudden loss of the government-backed incentive has, for me, brought to mind the biggest downside. When the program's done, there'll be a massive drop in sales. The Auto Extremist wrote an excellent column to this effect. In fact, it's likely that the program is just pulling forward sales that would've been delayed until later in the year, a phenomenon I've seen many times in my career as an analyst of the industry.

In my mind, what's needed is a soft landing. While you'll never completely get rid of the aforementioned effects, it may be possible to mitigate the boom and bust that seems inevitable at this point. For this, we'd need a gradual phaseout. Towards the end of the program, decrease the maximum cash from $4,500 to $3,500, then a thousand less each successive month.

While there will still be a significant dropoff right after each decrease, it will allow the manufacturers--and consumers--to gradually ween themselves off the support, and hopefully back to a dynamic in which people are looking past "the deal" toward the product, as Peter mentioned.

Otherwise, the carmakers will have another round of panic from returning monthly sales drops, and it will add to the gloomy economic outlook. Let's get off this cycle, and back to buying cars we really desire.

Mustang (stickers) headed to NASCAR

The "sport" of stock car racing lost its luster for true car enthusiasts years ago. NASCAR's Car of Tomorrow put the final nail in the coffin of legitimacy, taking all variables out of the race except for the pit crew and driver. Fans of Ford, Chevy, Dodge and Toyota can root on their favorite make, but in reality their just cheering for a particular set of decals.

It was with this lament in mind that many had been hoping for a rebirth in the sport, with manufacturers taking advantage of the recent resurgence of the pony car wars to bring some real competition to the track, in the form of actual Mustangs, Camaros and Challengers going head-to-head, perhaps in the minor-league Nationwide Series.

Well, based on the picture below, that might be kind of happening, but not really. Ford wants to campaign the "Mustang" in Nationwide, but of course they can't stray from the formula of standard template bodies on special tube frames, covered in stickers that minimally resemble what they hock on the showroom floor.

I found the following quote from the press release amusing: "Ford Racing has gone through the official NASCAR submission and approval process for the new car, and, once templates are finalized, production of Mustang parts will start so teams can build the first cars for testing later this fall." Testing what? Do different stickers (i.e. "parts") actually have divergent wind tunnel properties?

C'mon NASCAR, let's get back to roots and give fans something to actually cheer for.

I drive another whale

In a trip to CA earlier this year, I got to drive my "white whale", a water-cooled 911. Well, a year or so ago I got an excited text message from a coworker telling me about the Audi R8 we'd just gotten at the office. How long would we have it, I asked. Turns out, only a week, and I was stuck in Detroit. Crushed.

Well, the car clearly became "the one that got away". My new white whale is actually an Aston Martin DB9, but the R8 was definitely a large, sea-borne mammal. Until now. Last week, my friend Chris got an R8 to review for Left Lane News. He let me jump behind the wheel for a brief stint, and we took it to the area around GM's Milford Proving Grounds, which has some great roads. I've decided I'm okay with being forever in Chris' debt. I got to drive an R8.

The first impression was great, as rather than offer a horn blare to signal his arrival, Chris greeted me with a lovely chorus of revs. The second impression was just as good, with the car's looks doing a lot of talking. The third impression was a bit of a letdown, however, with the car's R tronic gearbox marring the initial interface with the car.

You may have read about this transmission. It's been getting a lot of negative feedback from reviewers, and I've gotta say, it almost ruins the car. R tronic is very similar to Lamborghini's e-gear sequential manual, and some say it's the same gearbox. I'd love to drive it in the Lambo, though, and see if it's just as jerky as it is in the Audi. As John McElroy says in his Autoline video, "every time this thing shifts, it feels like somebody's pressing on the brake." It actually feels pretty similar to the smart fortwo's jerky trans, and in both cars the only way to drive it smoothly is to trail off the gas just before a shift--but not too much. I guess maybe I'll have to leave the R8 on my whale list until I get to drive the supposedly phenomenal 6-speed manual.

The good news is VW has developed a new 7-speed DSG for Audi that will bear the brand's S tronic name, but will now be able to handle up to 406 lb-ft of torque, rather than the 6-speed's 258-lb-ft limit. No word yet on it's installation in the R8, but it seems like a perfect application, so I can't imagine it'll be too long.

Transmission issues aside, the R8 is a joy. The engine note is addictive, and cornering is a study in drama-free mastery of physics. I didn't get too far above the rule of law on the speedo, and I of course didn't get to work it out at the track, but Chris did get to do that, so I'll keep you updated on his post(s). He's in the planning stages now.

Bob Lutz here to stay?

The Wall Street Journal seems to have buried a lead in its article about GM exiting bankruptcy. According to a paragraph towards the end, "GM Vice Chairman and former product chief Bob Lutz will stay with GM indefinitely, according to people familiar with the matter." It gets a little muddy after that, with Fritz apparently declining to confirm the change, but this could be big for GM. Lutz helped to turn the General's product line around, and had pledged to retire by the end of the year. While it seems that Tom Stephens will still take over as product czar, having Lutz' influence around will be a boon to the "new GM".

I actually have an email in to John Stoll to clarify the issue, and I'll keep y'all update.